• The USD is trading mixed to firmer ahead of today's release of US Q4 GDP as European currencies are pressured by concern about the fiscal outlook in non-core European countries and the UK banking system, S&P says UK banks are less stable, GBP downside limited by gains in cross to EUR and in reaction to report of rising UK house prices, EUR downside limited by speculation the EU will come to the rescue of Greece, Swiss KOF indicator exceeds expectations, EU inflation and unemployment data as expected, BOJ policy minutes indicate a bias towards further lowering of interest rates, Japan reports weaker CPI and manufacturing PMI at its lowest level in seven months, BOJ governor says he is ready to act against potential market turmoil, commodity currencies pressured by Asian stock market weakness
• Focus turns to today's release of US GDP, Chicago PMI and Michigan consumer sentiment and Canada's GDP and producer prices
• BOJ minutes for the December 17th - 18th policy meeting indicate that a number of board members favor lowering interest rates as a way to support growth, Japan's December industrial production rose by 2.2%, December core CPI declined by 1.3%, December unemployment was at 5.1%, household spending rose 1% and December housing starts fell by 15.7%, January manufacturing PMI falls to 52.5 from 53.8 last month, JPY lower with upside limited by threat of intervention
• Australia's December private sector creditor rose by 0.3%, AUD flat
• EU January CPI rose 1%, December unemployment rate rose to 10%, EU December M3 declined by 0.2%, ECB's Bini Smaghi says timing of exit strategies depends on strength of economic recovery, EUR lower
• Swiss January KOF leading indicator rose to 1.77 compared to 1.73 last month, CHF gains versus EUR on strong Swiss leading indicators and concern that sovereign debt risk will spread in the EU
• UK Jan GFK consumer confidence at -17 compared to -19 last month, Jan house prices rose by 1.2%, GBP mixed
• Baltic freight index dropped 5% Thursday
• China says it will keep monetary policy loose despite rising price pressures
• US equity markets set to open higher, European equities 1% higher, Nikkei closed 216 points lower

Upcoming Events

• US - Friday, advanced Q4 GDP will be released expected at 4.5% compared to 2.2% last quarter, along with January Chicago PMI expected at 57.5 compared to 58.7 last month and final January Michigan consumer sentiment expected at 73
• CAN - Friday, November GDP will be released expected unchanged at 0.2% along with December IPPI and RMPI expected at 0.4% and 1.2% respectively

Download Report(s):

File	Description	File size
100129_US_Morning_Notes.pdf		53 Kb