US Morning Notes - USD lower, German ZEW beats forecast, UK CPI rises

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Written by Michael J. Malpede   
Tuesday, 20 April 2010 12:38 GMT
FX Highlights
  • The USD is trading lower as equity markets rebound in reaction to strong earnings at Goldman, diminishing concern over the impact of the SEC investigation of Goldman and optimism about the global recovery as German investor confidence improves, EUR is trading higher supported by above forecast German ZEW investor sentiment, EUR gains were limited by Greek debt worries and a statement from the ECB's Weber that Greece may need up to €80bln in aid,GBP is trading higher supported by above forecast UK CPI, AUD trades higher supported by firmer commodity prices and hawkish RBA minutes, JPY is trading lower pressured by firmer equity markets and dovish comments from BOJ Governor Shirakawa, today's recovery in risk appetite is tentative limiting USD selling pressure
  • Focus turns to today's BOC policy meeting, BOC is expected to boost growth and inflation forecasts
  • SEC decision to charge Goldman was split down party lines, the vote spilt suggests that part of the rationale for the charge could have been motivated by politics and the debate over financial reform, this may dampen concern about the impact of the Goldman charge
  • Japan's February tertiary index declined by 0.2%, BOJ Governor Shirakawa says demand is weak but the recovery is likely to continue, BOJ to maintain easy monetary policy, JPY lower
  • German April ZEW economic sentiment improved to 53 from 44.5 last month, a reading of 45.1 was expected, today's Greek auction was successful, EUR higher
  • UK March inflation rose by 0.6% m/m and 3.4%y/y, a 3.2% annual CPI rise was expected, GBP higher
  • RBA minutes state say that interest rates are still below average and will need to rise more, AUD higher
  • Fed's Evans says the recession is definitely over, risk of double dip small, will it take time for unemployment to fall
  • A UN agency says that G-20 nations saved or created 21mln jobs in 2009 and 2010 thanks to stimulus measures
  • GM will repay $4.7bln of debt back to the government ahead of schedule
  • US equity markets set to open higher, European equities 1% higher, Nikkei closed 8 points lower

Upcoming Events

  • US- Tuesday, no major US economic data scheduled for release today
  • CAN-Tuesday, BOC policy meeting, no rate change is expected, the BOC is widely expected to shift to a more hawkish bias
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