US Morning Notes - USD higher, EU fiscal worries, stocks tumble

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Written by Michael J. Malpede   
Friday, 05 February 2010 13:11 GMT
FX Highlights
  • The USD is trading higher with the EUR falling to an eight month low as stocks tumble and risk aversion rises, concern about debt troubles in Europe and the global recovery sparked selling of equities and safe haven demand for the USD and JPY, widening of EU budget deficits are seen as a risk to the European economic recovery, recent tightening of Chinese monetary policy is seen as a threat to the global recovery, there are unconfirmed rumors of SNB intervention to boost the EUR as EUR/CHF trades at a 15 month low, the EUR rebounded from overseas lows supported by SNB intervention, CAD rebounds in reaction to report of better than expected Canadian unemployment
  • Focus turns to today's release of US unemployment and consumer credit
  • Friday's US unemployment report will include benchmark revisions that may include 824k downward revision in 2009 employment growth
  • Canada created 43k new jobs last month with the unemployment rate falling to 8.3% from 8.5%, CAD lower, CAD off lows
  • China's SIC expects 11.5% Q1 GDP growth
  • RBA monetary policy statement says recent rate hikes have materially reduced monetary stimulus, monetary policy will be adjusted if the economy improves, Australia's January construction conditions rose 8.4 points to 57.7, AUD lower
  • Japan's December leading indicator rose by 3%, Toyota's CEO says company is in crisis, JPY mixed
  • German industrial output declined by 2.6% in December, EUR lower
  • UK output prices for January rose by 0.4%, input prices rose by 2% and core output prices rose by 0.3%, GBP lower
  • EUR/CHF trades at a 15 month low as the CHF joins the JPY and USD as the preferred safe haven currencies, there are reports that the SNB intervened which sparked a modest rebound in the EUR
  • Geithner says he thinks China is ready to move on Yuan revaluation, this may partly explain Thursdays JPY surge and commodities price drop, China says it will prevent the Yuan from rising because of concern about the global recovery
  • Oracle plans to hire 2k and Cisco 3k new employees
  • Fed's Evans says 4% GDP growth for the US is not outside of realm of possibility, no strong incentive to change monetary policy
  • US equity markets set to open lower, European equities 1.5% lower, Nikkei closed 298 points lower

Upcoming Events

  • US - Friday, January unemployment will be released expected at 10.1% compared to 10% last month along with nonfarm payrolls expected at 5k compared to -85k last month and December consumer credit expected at -9bln compared to - 17.5bln last month
  • CAN - Friday, January unemployment will be released expected at 8.5% compared to 8.4% last month along with employment growth expected at 15k compared to -28.3k last month (already released)
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