EU Morning Report - S&P says that it may downgrade Greek debt once again, risk aversion grips the market!

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Written by Markos Solomou   
Thursday, 25 February 2010 07:37 GMT

S&P says that it may downgrade Greek debt once again, risk aversion grips the market!

  •  Yesterday's trading session was all about Ben Bernanke's semiannual testimony which was expected to be Dovish by the market in general. As his testimony went on however he was largely in line with his previous testimony on February the 10th. In his testimony he repeated the low rates for an extended period rhetoric. He supported this stance due to current subdued inflation trends, low resource utilization and stable inflation expectations. He also went on to highlight that the 25bp hike in the discount rate did not imply a tightening move and will not affect households and businesses. Overall the market has shifted its focus to the upcoming employment reports as a key indicator for the timing of rate hikes. On the financial calendar side of things we saw the January New Home Sales which disappointed market by falling 11.2%. Price action for the USDJPY yesterday was between 90.35 - 89.39. 
  •  In Europe fear gripped the market again as S&P warned of another possible downgrade of Greek debt to BBB+. The EURUSD reacted immediately by challenging the 1.3440 lows. The JPY strengthened across the board as well as it was bought as a safe haven. The EURJPY spectacularly got sold and is currently trading at new lows since February 2009 at 120.30 Yen. On a more positive note however we saw Industrial orders rise by 9.5% year on year beating expectations and also German GDP Q4 growth come in at 0.0% as expected. EURUSD price action was between 1.3628 - 1.3450.
  •  The GBP also got hit yesterday and overnight as the market digested BoE Posen's statement that the doors for QE will be kept open if necessary. The market remains focused on Fridays GDP report, price action for the GBPUSD was between 1.5475 - 1.5316.
  •  Today's financial calendar will include Switzerland and German unemployment figures with 18K jobs expected to be created in Germany. Consumer confidence figures in Europe will attract some attention especially after the Greek debacle.  In the UK BoE King will be speaking with inflation and QE statements most probably attracting the most attention. In the US Durable goods and Fed Chairman Bernanke will attract most attention in the US session.

 Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

  • § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.3525 with a preference to enter into short positions at 1.3515
  • § The USDJPY pivot point is at 90.00 with a preference to enter short positions at 90.00

 Today's calendar and market movers:

  • § Germany Employment change expected at forecasted at 8.2%
  • § UK BoE Melvin King Testifies
  • § EU Economic Sentiment expected to rise to 96.2
  • § US Durable Goods Orders for January expected at 1.5%
  • § US Fed Chairman Testifies.

  Equity Markets:

  •  US equities closed positive yesterday with the DJIA and the SP500 closing 0.89% and 0.97% respectively.  The European bourses were positive yesterday with the FTSE up 0.52% the DAX and the CAC closing positive at 0.20% and 0.23% respectively.  The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is -0.95% and -0.72% respectively.