EU Morning Report - Non Farm payrolls comes in mixed, risk aversion prevails on Europe’s Fiscal concerns!

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Written by Markos Solomou   
Monday, 08 February 2010 07:12 GMT

Non Farm payrolls comes in mixed, risk aversion prevails on Europe's Fiscal concerns!

  • The main event on Friday was the US unemployment report, Non Farm Payrolls. The report showed a mixed picture in the employment situation. The unemployment rate fell to 9.7% where as the net change showed a loss of 20k jobs. The expectation was for job growth of about 5K. The December numbers however did disappoint as they were revised from -85K to -150K. The USD was initially bought on risk aversion however as the session went on the equity markets rallied back to break even and the USD weakened on some profit taking ahead of the weekend. Fed Kansas President said that the employment situation will improve steadily throughout the year and that the timing of the Feds first rate hike will depend on developments in the economy. St Louis Fed President Bullard said that the jobless rate is unlikely going to reach the December 1982 peak of 10.8%. USDJPY price action was between 89.86 - 88.80.
  • In Europe on Friday we saw new lows since May 2009 as concerns escalated in regards to sovereign credit risk within the Euro Zone. Short Euro positions have risen to record levels surpassing even the shorts placed during the financial crisis during September 2008. The German finance minister Shaeuble said that the market concerns are over exaggerated and the ECB president said on behalf of Germany, France and Italy that he was confident Greece would reach the 3% deficit to GDP level by 2012. EURUSD price action on Friday was between 1.3747 - 1.3582
  • In the UK Alistair Darling the Chancellor of the Exchequer said that the QE pause by the BoE was ''absolutely right''. The market now turns its focus to Wednesday's quarterly inflation report latest projections and also on hints regarding exit strategies.
  • In China worries regarding credit tightening are molding the sentiment in the region and can only add to the negative sentiment already created due to the sovereign debt issues in Europe. Speculation is mounting that the PBoC may further raise the reserve ratio requirements by banks as inflationary pressures persist.
  • Today we have a light financial calendar with the main report been the Sentix index expected to print at -3.2% drop from the previous month. We will also have the unemployment rate and retail sales in Switzerland today. However the main focus will be developments within the Euro zone and its fiscal concerns.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

  • The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.3690 with a preference to enter into short positions at 1.3680
  • The USDJPY pivot point is at 89.75 with a preference to enter short positions at 89.70

Today's calendar and market movers:                           

  • Switzerland Retail Sales yy is out last month printed a 0.6% increase
  • Europe Sentix Index for February expected to drop by -3.2%

Now onto Stocks: 

  • US equities closed positive yesterday day with the DJIA and the SP500 closing 0.10% and 0.74% respectively.  The European burses were negative yesterday with the FTSE down -1.53% the DAX and the CAC closing negative at -1.79% and -3.40% respectively.  The NIKEI and the HSI at the time of righting is -1.05% and -1.2% respectively.