Weekly Outlook - 11th March 2013


USD/JPY soaring as US Data Improves

Last week’s currency trading review

USD/JPY persistently strong US data is helping the Yen pair tofresh multi year highs with February US Nonfarm payrolls beating expectationsat 236k vs. 160k forecast and the Unemployment Rate dropping sharply to 7.7%vs. 7.9% previously. The FED has recently linked the QE3 program to theUnemployment rate with 6.5% the figure mentioned as its target.  

EUR/USD was able to bounce from 1.3000 to 1.3100 after the ECB wasmore neutral than forecast at its monthly meeting and President Draghi failedto talk down the single currency. The rally didn’t last long however with theStrong US jobs data the catalyst for further USD buying and pushed the majorback under 1.3000.

Currency Movement last week

EUR/USD was down -0.16% closingat 1.2996, after opening the week at 1.3017.

USD/JPY was up +2.60% closingat 96.02, after opening at 93.52.

GBP/USD was down -0.84% closingat 1.4909 after opening at 1.5034.

AUD/USD was up +0.32%closing at 1.0234 after opening at 1.0201.

This Week’s Trading Preview

Technical Analysis




 USD/JPY

11/03/2013 01:49 



1 week Trend:  (=) 

 1 month Trend:  (=)

USD/JPY intraday: further advance.


Pivot: 95.45

Our preference: Long positions above 95.45 with targets @ 96.5 & 96.8 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 95.45 look for further downside with 94.8 & 94.35 as targets.

Comment: the next resistances are at 96.5 and then at 96.8.

Key levels
97
96.8
96.5
96.114 last
95.45
94.8
94.35

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Forex Economic Data Preview

In the States; On Tuesday, February Retail Sales forecast at 0.5%vs. 0.1% previously. On Thursday, PPI forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.2% previously.Also, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 355k vs. 340k previously. On Friday, February CPI forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.0% m/m. AlsoFebruary Industrial Production forecast at 0.3% vs. -0.1% previously.Preliminary March UoM Consumer sentiment forecast at 78.2 vs. 77.6 previously. We will provide our previews and reviews ofthese data releases in the daily summary.

In the Eurozone; On Monday, January German Trade Balance forecastat 17.9bn vs. 16.8bn previously. On Wednesday, January EU Industrial Productionforecast at -0.1% vs. 0.7% previously. On Friday, February CPI forecast at 1.8%vs. 1.8% previously. Also EU Economic Summit. In the UK; On Tuesday, January Manufacturing Production forecastat 0.1% vs. 1.6% previously. Also January Trade Balance forecast at -8.8bn vs.-8.9bn. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Japan; on Tuesday, BOJ monetary minutes. In Australia; OnWednesday, Westpac March Consumer Sentiment. On Thursday, February Employment Change forecast at 10.7k vs. 10.4kpreviously. Also Unemployment rate forecast at 5.5% vs. 5.4% previously.